Duke Lacrosse Statistics

Below is taken from Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt at their Freakonomics blog. It is fairly interesting, and like Levitt, I am not sure what to make of it.

Here is something that I don’t quite know how to interpret.

In the Duke lacrosse sexual assault case, the police made the 46 players come down to the police station to have their pictures taken. Then these 46 pictures were shown to the women who has accused the lacrosse players of sexually assaulting her.

She was shown the pictures one-by-one. The three players that she positively identified were the fourth, fifth, and seventh pictures that she saw. These are the only three positive identifications that were made.

Statistically this is quite strange. The chance of any one player being positively identified is 3/46, or about .065. I did the calculations, and if the order of the pictures was randomly chosen, the probability that 3 of the first 7 pictures would be positive identifications is less than 1 in 100.

This suggests one of three possibilities:

1) Rare events happen and maybe this is the one time in 100 that a distribution this unusual occurred.

2) The police intentionally or unintentionally stacked the deck so that these three pictures were in the beginning.

3) There was some sort of bias that led the accuser to be inclined to give positive identifications early in the process.

I’m not trying to side with either party on this matter, at all. Indeed, I haven’t even been paying close attention to what has been happening. I just raise this as a statistical curiosity for the conspiracy theorists among you to argue about.

(Thanks to Brian Sullivan for bringing this issue to my attention and passing along the Motion to Dismiss which contains this information. I don’t have an online version of it to link to. I’m sure someone reading this blog will be able to provide such a link.)

Minimum Wage

Here is a decent illustration of the idea of minimum wage. I borrowed this passage from the guys over at EconLog. I'd love to get a little dialogue going with this idea...because most people don't realize: 1. how a minimum is an example of the government meddling with the free market and prices, thus causing artificially high wages, and 2. the fact that many, many economic studies have determined that, contrary to popular belief, most wage earners who are receiving minimum wage are in fact not the poorest people in this country, but rather teenagers of non-poor families, and/or college kids working in the summer.


Allow me here to spin the core argument -- that minimum-wage legislation prices many low-skilled workers out of their jobs -- by wondering aloud if proponents of higher minimum wages would ever make the following claim:

The market prices of most used-cars are too low for sellers of those cars to support their families. This fact is especially true for poor people, who, when they sell their old cars, almost always have only old, high-mileage, often dilapidated used-cars to sell. These people aren't selling two-year-old Lexuses or BMWs. They're selling 15-year-old Chevys and 20-year-old Hondas. So let's enact legislation mandating that no used-car can sell for less than, say, $25,000. That way, anyone who sells a used-car is assured that he or she will earn at least enough money to support a family for a year.

I doubt that many people would argue that government should legislate a minumum price for used-cars. But why not? If merely identifying a problem with a low price (such as "At the current minimum wage, even full-time workers can't support a family of four") is sufficient to justify legislative action to raise that price, why won't such action work for used-cars as well as it will work for labor hours?

Pentagon's Take on Homosexuality

Here is an interesting take on homosexuality. The pentagon is calling it a mental disorder...not a genetic disposition, or a "choice" that people make. Below is an excerpt of the article. Click here for the rest of it.

WASHINGTON — A Pentagon document classifies homosexuality as a mental disorder, decades after mental health experts abandoned that position.

The document outlines retirement or other discharge policies for service members with physical disabilities, and in a section on defects lists homosexuality alongside mental retardation and personality disorders.

Yesterday I met a man named Millard. I didn't think people kept naming their children that name since the years of President Millard Filmore. Speaking of which, can anyone tell me one single fact, off the top of their head - not looking anything up, about President Filmore?

Ghana sent their medecine man to Germany to check out all the stadiums...and it must have worked...they just scored a goal in the second minutes versus the sick Czechs.

Drudge Headline

The headline on the Drudge Report right now is this: Clinton Links Republican Policies to More Hurricanes. That assertion is exactly why liberals have a bad name. Hurricanes are now Republican's fault? Can somebody please explain me the rationale behind that? At least I understand how someone can blame Republicans for poor people, uneducated people, lack of economic equality, etc...however, how can people start criticizing Republicans for events of nature? I doubt I will ever understand.

Simpson Philosophy

This is a pretty good article about how modern day philosphy is effectively articulated in The Simpsons. I have always been interested in the suprisingly high intellectual / satirical content of The Simpsons, and this article really demonstrates that.

The Simpsons is more than a funny cartoon - it reveals truths about human nature that rival the observations of great philosophers from Plato to Kant... while Homer sets his house on fire, says philosopher Julian Baggini.

With the likes of Douglas Coupland, George Walden and Stephen Hawking as fans, taking the Simpsons seriously is no longer outre but de rigeur.

It is, quite simply, one of the greatest cultural artefacts of our age. So great, in fact, that it not only reflects and plays with philosophical ideas, it actually does real philosophy, and does it well.

Here's the rest of the article.

Murderer Seeks Sex Change or will Commit Suicide

Obviously this makes me mad:

BOSTON — A man serving a life sentence for murdering his wife is asking a federal judge to order the state to pay for a sex-change operation, arguing that denying him the surgery amounts to cruel and unusual punishment.

A psychiatrist testified Tuesday that he believes Robert Kosilek — who now goes by Michelle — will commit suicide if state corrections officials refuse to allow the surgery and Kosilek is unable to complete the transformation into a woman.

And wouldn't you know that the dateline is Boston, MA.

Here is the whole article.

Quotation of the Day

People rarely succeed unless they have fun in what they are doing.
-- Andrew Carnegie

The Quintessential Mint Julep

With the 132 running of the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, I feel that it is my absolute duty as author of The Mint Julep, to write a post concerning that lovely libation that is the essence of Kentucky in May. Of course, I am talking about the Mint Julep. Just as I did on this day, one year ago, so too today will I include a letter, written from a Lieutenant in World War II, to a fellow comrade. The description of how to create this fine beverage is one worth reading in whole. Last year I only included a brief segment; however, for your benefit, the entire letter is found below. Please enjoy.

March 30, 1937

My dear General Connor,

Your letter requesting my formula for mixing mint juleps leaves me in the same position in which Captain Barber found himself when asked how he was able to carve the image of an elephant from a block of wood. He replied that it was a simple process consisting merely of whittling off the part that didn't look like an elephant.

The preparation of the quintessence of gentlemanly beverages can be described only in like terms. A mint julep is not the product of a FORMULA. It is a CEREMONY and must be performed by a gentleman possessing a true sense of the artistic, a deep reverence for the ingredients and a proper appreciation of the occasion. It is a rite that must not be entrusted to a novice, a statistician, nor a Yankee. It is a heritage of the old South, an emblem of hospitality and a vehicle in which noble minds can travel together upon the flower-strewn paths of happy and congenial thought.

So far as the mere mechanics of the operation are concerned, the procedure, stripped of its ceremonial embellishments, can be described as follows:

Go to a spring where cool, crystal-clear water bubbles from under a bank of dew-washed ferns. In a consecrated vessel, dip up a little water at the source. Follow the stream through its banks of green moss and wildflowers until it broadens and trickles through beds of mint growing in aromatic profusion and waving softly in the summer breezes. Gather the sweetest and most tender shoots and gently carry them home. Go to the sideboard and select a decanter of Kentucky Bourbon, distilled by a master hand, mellowed with age yet still vigorous and inspiring. An ancestral sugar bowl, a row of silver goblets, some spoons and some ice and you are ready to start.

In a canvas bag, pound twice as much ice as you think you will need. Make it fine as snow, keep it dry and do not allow it to degenerate into slush.

In each goblet, put a slightly heaping teaspoonful of granulated sugar, barely cover this with spring water and slightly bruise one mint leaf into this, leaving the spoon in the goblet. Then pour elixir from the decanter until the goblets are about one-fourth full. Fill the goblets with snowy ice, sprinkling in a small amount of sugar as you fill. Wipe the outsides of the goblets dry and embellish copiously with mint.

Then comes the important and delicate operation of frosting. By proper manipulation of the spoon, the ingredients are circulated and blended until Nature, wishing to take a further hand and add another of its beautiful phenomena, encrusts the whole in a glittering coat of white frost. Thus harmoniously blended by the deft touches of a skilled hand, you have a beverage eminently appropriate for honorable men and beautiful women.

When all is ready, assemble your guests on the porch or in the garden, where the aroma of the juleps will rise Heavenward and make the birds sing. Propose a worthy toast, raise the goblet to your lips, bury your nose in the mint, inhale a deep breath of its fragrance and sip the nectar of the gods.

Being overcome by thirst, I can write no further.

Sincerely,
S.B. Buckner, Jr.

Rumsfeld Heckled in Atlanta

ATLANTA — Anti-war protesters repeatedly interrupted Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld during a speech Thursday, and one of them, a former CIA analyst, accused him in a question-and-answer session of lying about prewar intelligence on Iraq.

So, there you have it. However, apparently Rummy held his own. Read about it here.

Zacarias Moussaoui's Sentence

A friend of mine had this to write, following the life sentence which was handed down to Zacarias Moussaoui yesterday afternoon.

What is this crap?

He was the ONLY one tried for the 9/11 bombings, and they gave him life in prison, whereby we (taxpayers) have to pay for him to stay alive in prison (he is only a young guy...age 37, like Dennis in Monty Python's Holy Grail), which by the way is absurd because he's not even a US citizen, he is a frenchman of Moroccan descent. Additionally, after they gave him life in prison instead of the death penalty, he pulled some bullshit:

"America, you lost. I won," he said Wednesday, clapping his hands as he was led out of the courtroom.

Now they are going to give him the opportunity to speak again publicly before he goes to jail: Zacarias Moussaoui will get one last chance to speak publicly Thursday before he is sent to a super-maximum security prison with little to no contact with the outside world for his role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Why will he get to speak publicly? They were worried about him being a martyr if he were killed, who knows what sort of Muslim rage he will incite when he is allowed to speak.

I hope the jurors felt like shit when he taunted them after his sentencing.

Then his mother blamed France and his race for his sentencing...he's lucky he's not on death row lady: Zacarias Moussaoui's mother on Thursday blamed France for not fighting harder for her son's case, and said his race and his color were partly to blame for the U.S. jury's decision to sentence him to life in prison over the Sept. 11 attacks.

I blame Virginia...the trial should have been held in Texas.

Nietzsche in Wall Street

This is an interesting article that a friend of mine wrote concerning Nietzsche's philosophy in the movie Wall Street. I found it fairly interesting. Enjoy.

The movie 'Wall Street' clearly demonstrates one of Nietzsche's more important ideas – the will to power. The main character in the movie, Bud Fox, starts out as an 'average-Joe' trader at a company in New York City, where he works cold-calling people, trying to get them to buy stocks. Fairly dissatisfied with the direction his job seems to be going, Fox calls big-shot investor, Gordon Gecko, fifty-nine days in a row, asking for a chance to set up a meeting. Finally Fox's persistence pays off and Gecko agrees to meet with him. It is at this meeting that Fox's will to power surfaces. When it appears that Gecko is about to end the meeting, Fox makes a desperate last-ditch attempt to win Gecko’s approval, and reveals a private piece of information concerning the airline for which his father works. He tells Gecko that a lawsuit in which the airline was involved, unbeknownst to anyone outside of the company, has been decided in a way favorable to the company's stocks. By 'inside trading' like this, Fox demonstrates that his will to power is stronger than his loyalty to his own father, as well as than his will to truth and honesty. This superiority of the will to power is a part of Nietzsche's philosophy, and an idea that is carried on throughout the movie.

Nietzsche argues that the will to power is the highest and most important aspect of the human personality. Throughout the movie, Bud Fox demonstrates the ability of the will to power to take over a person. Once Fox gets his initial taste of the power and the money he can gain through the illegal practice of inside trading, he can't stop trying for more and more, even to the point where he attempts to 'out-power' the most powerful of the powerful, Gordon Gecko. Working for Gecko, who believes and preaches that “greed is good...greed works,” Fox is surrounded by power-hungry businessmen, much like himself, all competing for the most powerful position. He increasingly becomes more and more dishonest as his will to power keeps growing.

If there was to exist a society based on Nietzsche's idea of the will to power, it would be a very unpleasant society filled with people similar to Bud Fox and Gordon Gecko. It would be 'every man for himself' in a struggle to become the most powerful – the Gordon Gecko of the society. There would be no place for morality or consideration of others. No one could be trusted as, like Bud Fox, people would lie, cheat, and exploit others in order to get ahead. Such a society clearly would not be desirable, as very little happiness can be derived from having nothing other than power and the things that come with it. 'Wall Street' put Nietzsche's philosophies into a real-life setting, demonstrating the way in which the will to power can destroy a person. While Nietzsche does have some valid points in his writings, the movie clearly demonstrates why and how his idea of the will to power could lead to a corrupt and evil society, as well as to the possible downfall of such a society. Bud Fox depicts this through his own personal downfall which ultimately leads to the receding of his will to power. The circle that Fox travels throughout the movie – from demonstrating little will to power, to maximum will to power, and back to having much less will to power – proves, through his experiences at each stage, that the will to power cannot be the basis of a wholesome or successful society.

Apologies

My apologies for not having posted anything in nearly a month. This April has been extremely busy for me, and this blog was not exactly on the front-burner. I hopefully will now have some more time to put up interesting articles, jokes, and other miscellaneous items.

Before I put anything of any substance up, here are some random things that I am excited about:

- The Kentucky Derby runs in 4 days - however, I don't see a strong contender to vie for the Triple Crown this year. Hopefully I am wrong about this.

- The Cincinnati Reds are leading the National League right now, behind the strong performance of Boston-acquired Bronson Arroyo. He is 5-0 and threw a complete game against the Cardinals last night.

- The Detroit Piston took a 3-1 series lead over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.

- This is something I am unhappy about and does not relate to sports - The price of oil is probably going to continue to rise through the summer. Gas will remain high and probably get higher. We hate this.

What's the Deal with Mass?

Here is another example of government interference in the private lives of its citizens. The specific case deals with a bill just passed in Massachusetts (naturally) which requires all of its citizens to have some type of health insurance. This, to me, is really bothersome. It falls under the same category as states which require seat belts to be worn while driving motor vehicles. Everyone would probably agree that seatbelts are safe, and that health insurance is good, but for these things to be mandated upon the general public, really makes me mad. If I don't want insurance, why force me?

Dwight Gooden to Prison

Gooden, the youngest pitcher to win the Cy Young award (at age 20) has to go to jail for a year and a day because of his relapsing cocaine addiction. Too bad when successful people go to pot (or coke as the case may be)

Time

Do days seem to go by faster when we get older because as we live longer, each day is smaller relative to the total amount of days we have lived? That is, at 3 years old, each day is roughly 1/1,100 of the total days lived, while for a 30 year old, each day is roughly 1/11,000 of his total days. So, it would seem only natural that as days become a smaller percentage of one's life, the time will seem much smaller, and therefore pass by quicker.

Duke Lacrosse

As most of you probably know the Duke lacrosse team has suspended play for the rest of its season following allegations that a dancer at a team party was beaten, choked, and raped.

I have had several conversations regarding this situation at Duke and have encountered a few different opinions. At least two people (ironically women) have remarked that the lesson of this is not to become a professional dancer. They argue that these women unnecessarily put themselves in danger by engaging in a less than safe profession where they tempt testosterone filled groups of excited males. In their opinion, a result like what happened at Duke is not surprising and perhaps even expected. The women got what they were asking for, so to speak.

I see the point, to a degree, but tend not to agree. I assert that the culpability lies squarely on the shoulders of the offending males. The relationship between dancer and client is clearly understood, and there are certain boundaries (such as physical contact) which are in place to protect the woman. Consequently, when a man, or group of men as the case may be, breeches the contract, no matter how tempted and excited, they are clearly the guilty party.

In any case, hopefully this sad drama in Durham can be wrapped up quickly, and without further racial strife, so that the school can get back to its normal pattern of educating bright students.

Workoholics Anonymous

Instead of AA, this is WA, and the focus is to get compulsive workers to chill out and take it easy. Apparently working long hours is now some kind of disease which requires a 12 step process to cure. In the 1800s, immigrants who worked incessantly were rewarded for their tireless work effort by moving up the socio-economic latter. Now, when people work incredibly hard, they are babied by support groups.

Can a Fat Person Be Pretty?

That is, are being fat and being physically attractive mutually exclusive? This is a question which I have been considering for a little while, and I am genuinely interested in whether an overweight individual can be aesthetically pleasing to the eye.

I assert that beauty begins in one's face. Whenever I look at an individual, I first notice their face, and use this as the first determinant of beauty. Closely following is the body type, shape, proportions, etc. So, using this methodology, it is conceivable that a fat person could have a pretty face...I think. But, perhaps their fatness would extend to their face, and that makes me wonder, can a fat face be pretty? I doubt it. But, assuming that the fatness does not extend to the face, then it is possible that a fat person could have a pretty face - nice eyes, lovely hair, etc. But, could the attractiveness of the face make up for the unattractiveness of the fat body? That is the main question that remains, and one I feel unable to answer.

I have tried very hard to think of fat people who are physically attractive, and have not yet been able to identify one. This leads me to conclude that fatness and physical beauty are not necessarily mutually exclusive; however, a pretty fat person certainly must be a rarity.